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Long Term Employment Projections, 2022 to 2032

Long Term Employment Projections, 2022 to 2032

By Carol Hayman, Workforce Insights Analyst 

Business workers

The DEW Labor Market Information (LMI) Division completes statewide ten-year industry and occupational employment projection every other July. This year’s analysis is statewide for the period of 2022-2032. It provides valuable insights into the state's economic landscape by highlighting growth trends, the top sectors, and the emerging opportunities in the labor market.

Industry Projections

The industry-side analysis projects employment based on sector categories within the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS). Overall, Exhibit 1 shows the state is expected to support more than 2.6 million jobs by 2032, fed by a ten-year increase of almost 262,000 jobs (11.1 percent). This equates to an annual growth rate of 1.06 percent.

EXHIBIT 1:  S.C.  INDUSTRY GROUP EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS, 2022-2032

NAICS TITLE

2022 BASE EMPLOYMENT

2032 PROJECTION

NUMERIC CHANGE

PERCENT CHANGE

ANNUAL GROWTH RATE

Total All Industries

2,352,883

2,614,627

+261,744

+11.1%

+1.06%

Self Employed and Unpaid Family Workers, All Jobs

122,263

130,369

+8,106

+6.6%

+0.64%

Natural Resources and Mining

15,992

16,019

+27

+0.2%

+0.02%

Construction

108,505

111,371

+2,866

+2.6%

+0.26%

Manufacturing

261,052

283,123

+22,071

+8.5%

+0.81%

Trade, Transportation, and Utilities

433,492

492,785

+59,293

+13.7%

+1.29%

Information

30,201

34,591

+4,390

+14.5%

+1.37%

Financial Activities

111,824

129,153

+17,329

+15.5%

+1.45%

Professional and Business Services

306,472

350,638

+44,166

+14.4%

+1.36%

Education and Health Services

439,088

499,765

+60,677

+13.8%

+1.30%

Leisure and Hospitality

264,731

291,837

+27,106

+10.2%

+0.98%

Other Services (except Government)

102,608

109,681

+7,073

+6.9%

+0.67%

Government

156,655

165,295

+8,640

+5.5%

+0.54%

Source: DEW, Employment Projections Program

 

Education and Health Services is expected to continue to be the largest state sector by employment, narrowly outpacing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities and Professional and Business Services. In terms of net job creation, Education and Health Services will lead the state over the next ten years, being projected to add nearly 61,000 jobs. It is followed by Trade, Transportation, and Utilities, with slightly more than 59,000 jobs projected. Professional and Business Services also shows robust growth over the ten-year period, with the addition of more than 44,000 jobs. The fastest growing sectors over the period – those with the steepest annual growth rate – include Financial Activities (1.45 percent) and Information (1.37 percent)).

Occupational Projections

Occupational projections are designed around the kind of work done in each job rather than the type of workplace. Exhibit 2 presents a table of employment projections and metrics by major occupation group. By total employment, the leading occupational categories are Office and Administrative Support, projected to have more than 315,000 jobs by 2032; Sales (more than 262,000); and Transportation and Material Moving (more than 248,000). 

The leading categories for net job creation through 2032 are Transportation and Material Moving, with almost 35,000 jobs created; Food Preparation and Serving (more than 25,000); and Sales (more than 23,000). The categories with the steepest annual growth rate are Computer and Mathematical Occupations (2.17 percent) and Healthcare Support Occupations (2.15 percent).

EXHIBIT 2:  S.C. OCCUPATIONAL EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS, 2022-2032

SOC CODE

SOC TITLE

BASE EMPLOYMENT

PROJECTION EMPLOYMENT

NUMERIC CHANGE

PERCENT CHANGE

ANNUAL GROWTH RATE

ANNUAL JOB OPENINGS

00-0000

Total All Occupations

2,352,883

2,614,627

+261,744

+11.1%

1.06%

304,271

11-0000

Management Occupations

150,610

171,970

+21,360

+14.2%

1.34%

14,392

13-0000

Business and Financial Operations Occupations

112,590

130,967

+18,377

+16.3%

1.52%

11,408

15-0000

Computer and Mathematical Occupations

51,220

63,459

+12,239

+23.9%

2.17%

4,603

17-0000

Architecture and Engineering Occupations

40,578

46,386

+5,808

+14.3%

1.35%

3,481

19-0000

Life, Physical, and Social Science Occupations

15,447

17,398

+1,951

+12.6%

1.20%

1,649

21-0000

Community and Social Service Occupations

30,364

35,263

+4,899

+16.1%

1.51%

3,179

23-0000

Legal Occupations

17,980

20,196

+2,216

+12.3%

1.17%

1,427

25-0000

Educational Instruction and Library Occupations

109,245

120,229

+10,984

+10.1%

0.96%

10,854

 

27-0000

Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media Occupations

27,887

31,867

+3,980

+14.3%

1.34%

3,316

29-0000

Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Occupations

136,875

158,774

+21,899

+16.0%

1.50%

10,434

31-0000

Healthcare Support Occupations

81,853

101,247

+19,394

+23.7%

2.15%

14,953

33-0000

Protective Service Occupations

47,905

51,796

+3,891

+8.1%

0.78%

5,859

 

35-0000

Food Preparation and Serving Related Occupations

218,037

243,089

+25,052

+11.5%

1.09%

45,968

 

37-0000

Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance Occupations

83,089

90,504

+7,415

+8.9%

0.86%

12,334

39-0000

Personal Care and Service Occupations

64,208

71,665

+7,457

+11.6%

1.10%

12,787

41-0000

Sales and Related Occupations

238,991

262,526

+23,535

+9.9%

0.94%

35,223

43-0000

Office and Administrative Support Occupations

307,743

315,503

+7,760

+2.5%

0.25%

36,365

45-0000

Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Occupations

9,790

9,462

-328

-3.4%

-0.34%

1,368

47-0000

Construction and Extraction Occupations

96,685

101,931

+5,246

+5.4%

0.53%

8,958

49-0000

Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Occupations

101,460

112,251

+10,791

+10.6%

1.02%

10,338

51-0000

Production Occupations

196,724

209,763

+13,039

+6.6%

0.64%

22,743

 

53-0000

Transportation and Material Moving Occupations

213,602

248,381

+34,779

+16.3%

1.52%

32,632

Source: DEW, Employment Projections Program