Long Term Employment Projections, 2022 to 2032
By Carol Hayman, Workforce Insights Analyst
The DEW Labor Market Information (LMI) Division completes statewide ten-year industry and occupational employment projection every other July. This year’s analysis is statewide for the period of 2022-2032. It provides valuable insights into the state's economic landscape by highlighting growth trends, the top sectors, and the emerging opportunities in the labor market.
Industry Projections
The industry-side analysis projects employment based on sector categories within the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS). Overall, Exhibit 1 shows the state is expected to support more than 2.6 million jobs by 2032, fed by a ten-year increase of almost 262,000 jobs (11.1 percent). This equates to an annual growth rate of 1.06 percent.
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EXHIBIT 1: S.C. INDUSTRY GROUP EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS, 2022-2032 |
|||||
|
NAICS TITLE |
2022 BASE EMPLOYMENT |
2032 PROJECTION |
NUMERIC CHANGE |
PERCENT CHANGE |
ANNUAL GROWTH RATE |
|
Total All Industries |
2,352,883 |
2,614,627 |
+261,744 |
+11.1% |
+1.06% |
|
Self Employed and Unpaid Family Workers, All Jobs |
122,263 |
130,369 |
+8,106 |
+6.6% |
+0.64% |
|
Natural Resources and Mining |
15,992 |
16,019 |
+27 |
+0.2% |
+0.02% |
|
Construction |
108,505 |
111,371 |
+2,866 |
+2.6% |
+0.26% |
|
Manufacturing |
261,052 |
283,123 |
+22,071 |
+8.5% |
+0.81% |
|
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities |
433,492 |
492,785 |
+59,293 |
+13.7% |
+1.29% |
|
Information |
30,201 |
34,591 |
+4,390 |
+14.5% |
+1.37% |
|
Financial Activities |
111,824 |
129,153 |
+17,329 |
+15.5% |
+1.45% |
|
Professional and Business Services |
306,472 |
350,638 |
+44,166 |
+14.4% |
+1.36% |
|
Education and Health Services |
439,088 |
499,765 |
+60,677 |
+13.8% |
+1.30% |
|
Leisure and Hospitality |
264,731 |
291,837 |
+27,106 |
+10.2% |
+0.98% |
|
Other Services (except Government) |
102,608 |
109,681 |
+7,073 |
+6.9% |
+0.67% |
|
Government |
156,655 |
165,295 |
+8,640 |
+5.5% |
+0.54% |
Source: DEW, Employment Projections Program
Education and Health Services is expected to continue to be the largest state sector by employment, narrowly outpacing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities and Professional and Business Services. In terms of net job creation, Education and Health Services will lead the state over the next ten years, being projected to add nearly 61,000 jobs. It is followed by Trade, Transportation, and Utilities, with slightly more than 59,000 jobs projected. Professional and Business Services also shows robust growth over the ten-year period, with the addition of more than 44,000 jobs. The fastest growing sectors over the period – those with the steepest annual growth rate – include Financial Activities (1.45 percent) and Information (1.37 percent)).
Occupational Projections
Occupational projections are designed around the kind of work done in each job rather than the type of workplace. Exhibit 2 presents a table of employment projections and metrics by major occupation group. By total employment, the leading occupational categories are Office and Administrative Support, projected to have more than 315,000 jobs by 2032; Sales (more than 262,000); and Transportation and Material Moving (more than 248,000).
The leading categories for net job creation through 2032 are Transportation and Material Moving, with almost 35,000 jobs created; Food Preparation and Serving (more than 25,000); and Sales (more than 23,000). The categories with the steepest annual growth rate are Computer and Mathematical Occupations (2.17 percent) and Healthcare Support Occupations (2.15 percent).
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EXHIBIT 2: S.C. OCCUPATIONAL EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS, 2022-2032 |
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|
SOC CODE |
SOC TITLE |
BASE EMPLOYMENT |
PROJECTION EMPLOYMENT |
NUMERIC CHANGE |
PERCENT CHANGE |
ANNUAL GROWTH RATE |
ANNUAL JOB OPENINGS |
|
00-0000 |
Total All Occupations |
2,352,883 |
2,614,627 |
+261,744 |
+11.1% |
1.06% |
304,271 |
|
11-0000 |
Management Occupations |
150,610 |
171,970 |
+21,360 |
+14.2% |
1.34% |
14,392 |
|
13-0000 |
Business and Financial Operations Occupations |
112,590 |
130,967 |
+18,377 |
+16.3% |
1.52% |
11,408 |
|
15-0000 |
Computer and Mathematical Occupations |
51,220 |
63,459 |
+12,239 |
+23.9% |
2.17% |
4,603 |
|
17-0000 |
Architecture and Engineering Occupations |
40,578 |
46,386 |
+5,808 |
+14.3% |
1.35% |
3,481 |
|
19-0000 |
Life, Physical, and Social Science Occupations |
15,447 |
17,398 |
+1,951 |
+12.6% |
1.20% |
1,649 |
|
21-0000 |
Community and Social Service Occupations |
30,364 |
35,263 |
+4,899 |
+16.1% |
1.51% |
3,179 |
|
23-0000 |
Legal Occupations |
17,980 |
20,196 |
+2,216 |
+12.3% |
1.17% |
1,427 |
|
25-0000 |
Educational Instruction and Library Occupations |
109,245 |
120,229 |
+10,984 |
+10.1% |
0.96% |
10,854 |
|
27-0000 |
Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media Occupations |
27,887 |
31,867 |
+3,980 |
+14.3% |
1.34% |
3,316 |
|
29-0000 |
Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Occupations |
136,875 |
158,774 |
+21,899 |
+16.0% |
1.50% |
10,434 |
|
31-0000 |
Healthcare Support Occupations |
81,853 |
101,247 |
+19,394 |
+23.7% |
2.15% |
14,953 |
|
33-0000 |
Protective Service Occupations |
47,905 |
51,796 |
+3,891 |
+8.1% |
0.78% |
5,859 |
|
35-0000 |
Food Preparation and Serving Related Occupations |
218,037 |
243,089 |
+25,052 |
+11.5% |
1.09% |
45,968 |
|
37-0000 |
Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance Occupations |
83,089 |
90,504 |
+7,415 |
+8.9% |
0.86% |
12,334 |
|
39-0000 |
Personal Care and Service Occupations |
64,208 |
71,665 |
+7,457 |
+11.6% |
1.10% |
12,787 |
|
41-0000 |
Sales and Related Occupations |
238,991 |
262,526 |
+23,535 |
+9.9% |
0.94% |
35,223 |
|
43-0000 |
Office and Administrative Support Occupations |
307,743 |
315,503 |
+7,760 |
+2.5% |
0.25% |
36,365 |
|
45-0000 |
Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Occupations |
9,790 |
9,462 |
-328 |
-3.4% |
-0.34% |
1,368 |
|
47-0000 |
Construction and Extraction Occupations |
96,685 |
101,931 |
+5,246 |
+5.4% |
0.53% |
8,958 |
|
49-0000 |
Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Occupations |
101,460 |
112,251 |
+10,791 |
+10.6% |
1.02% |
10,338 |
|
51-0000 |
Production Occupations |
196,724 |
209,763 |
+13,039 |
+6.6% |
0.64% |
22,743 |
|
53-0000 |
Transportation and Material Moving Occupations |
213,602 |
248,381 |
+34,779 |
+16.3% |
1.52% |
32,632 |
Source: DEW, Employment Projections Program